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I'm Adam Isacson. I live in Washington and work at the Washington Office on Latin America. I'm a dad, a husband, and I don't get enough sleep.

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At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver’s statistical model has been showing a notable jump in the probability of Obama being re-elected.

At fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver’s statistical model has been showing a notable jump in the probability of Obama being re-elected.

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